The U.S. job market is showing signs of life, but the Iran war casts a shadow of uncertainty. The hiring recession may be ending, with hiring rates rising and job openings increasing. However, the conflict in the Middle East has triggered an oil-supply shock, raising energy prices and threatening to reduce consumer demand and business hiring. This could stall the labor market's recovery, as higher gas prices make their way through the economy. While the overall unemployment rate remains low, the share of long-term unemployed workers has been creeping upward, indicating persistent challenges for job seekers. The Iran war is a wildcard that could significantly impact the labor market, and its effects will need to be closely monitored as the situation unfolds.
